上海基础房价相关指标及走势的分析与研究

基础房价的相关指标及其走势一直是大众关心的热门话题．本文通过对上海基础房价相关指标的分析，建立了市场房价走势的两个数学模型．模型一：在相关性分析的基础上利用主成分分析消除指标间的共线性，再用回归拟合房价模型并进行预测；模型二：在相关性分析的基础上利用核估计方法预测出房价．继呵对2005年下半年的房价走势进行了预测，得出的结果与实际情况相吻合．     

Parametric and Non Homogeneous Semi-Markov Process for HIV Control

In AIDS control, physicians have a growing need to use pragmatically useful and interpretable tools in their daily medical taking care of patients. Semi-Markov process seems to be well adapted to model the evolution of HIV-1 infected patients. In this study, we introduce and define a non homogeneous semi-Markov (NHSM) model in continuous time. Then the problem of finding the equations that describe the biological evolution of patient is studied and the interval transition probabilities are computed. A parametric approach is used and the maximum likelihood estimators of the process are given. A Monte Carlo algorithm is presented for realizing non homogeneous semi-Markov trajectories. As results, interval transition probabilities are computed for distinct times and follow-up has an impact on the evolution of patients.      

Eigenvalue and stability of singular differential delay systems

The eigenvalue and the stability of singular differential systems with delay are considered. Firstly we investigate some properties of the eigenvalue, then give the exact exponential estimation for the fundamental solution, and finally discuss the necessary and sufficient condition of uniform asymptotic stability.     

Predictive control of periodic-review production inventory systems with deteriorating items

In this paper a predictive control strategy is applied to a periodic-review dynamic inventory system with deteriorating items. Given the current inventory level, we determine the optimal production rates to be implemented at the beginning of each of the following periods over the control horizon. The effectiveness of this approach is the use of future information of the inventory target level and the desired production rate, which are available, along the fixed horizon. The deterioration coefficient may be known or unknown and both cases are considered. In the case where it is unknown, the self-tuning predictive control is applied. The proposed control algorithms are illustrated by simulations.     

半参数方差误差模型的估计

本文综合近邻权函数法及最小二乘法，用两阶段最小二乘估计的方法得到了半参数EV模型中参数的估计量及其强相合性，渐近正态性。同时也得到了非参数函数的估计量及其强相合性，一致强相合性。     

Nonparametric estimation and adaptive control in a class of finite Markov decision chains

We consider a class of Markov decision processes withfinite state and action spaces which, essentially, is determined by the following condition: The state space isirreducible under the action of any stationary policy. However, except by this restriction, the transition law iscompletely unknown to the controller. In this context, we find a set of policies under which thefrequency estimators of the transition law are strongly consistent and then, this result is applied to constructadaptive asymptotically discount-optimal policies.Dedicated to Professor Truman O. Lewis, on the occasion of his sixtieth birthdayThis research was supported in part by the Third World Academy of Sciences (TWAS) under Grant TWAS RG MP 898-152, and in part by the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT) under Grant A128CCOEO550 (MT-2).     

Pattern Search Method for Discrete <Emphasis Type="Italic">L</Emphasis><Subscript>1</Subscript>–Approximation

We propose a pattern search method to solve a classical nonsmooth optimization problem. In a deep analogy with pattern search methods for linear constrained optimization, the set of search directions at each iteration is defined in such a way that it conforms to the local geometry of the set of points of nondifferentiability near the current iterate. This is crucial to ensure convergence. The approach presented here can be extended to wider classes of nonsmooth optimization problems. Numerical experiments seem to be encouraging. This work was supported by M.U.R.S.T., Rome, Italy.     

Local polynomial fitting under association

We consider the estimation of multivariate regression functions r(x₁,…,x_d) and their partial derivatives up to a total order p1 using high-order local polynomial fitting. The processes {Y_i,X_i} are assumed to be (jointly) associated. Joint asymptotic normality is established for the estimates of the regression function r and all its partial derivatives up to the total order p. Expressions for the bias and variance/covariance matrix (of the asymptotic distribution) are given.     

A geometric theory forL 2-stability of the inverse problem in a one-dimensional elliptic equation from anH 1-observation

This study provides a stability theory for the nonlinear least-squares formulation of estimating the diffusion coefficient in a two-point boundary-value problem from an error-corrupted observation of the state variable. It is based on analysing the projection of the observation on the nonconvex attainable set.This research was started while G. Chavent visited the Technical University of Graz. Support through the Steiermaerkische Landesregierung is gratefully acknowledged.     

BAHADUR ASYMPTOTIC EFFICIENCY IN A SEMIPARAMETRIC REGRESSION MODEL

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